"Fellow Nigerians at home and abroad, good morning and a very happy Easter to you all. Our theme for today’s State of the Nation Broadcast is “The Conspicuous Handwriting on the Wall,” inspired by the account in Daniel 5 verses 1-6 and 13-29. #SOTNB21.
"As you may recall, on January 15, 2011, I was invited by the then General Muhammadu Buhari to run with him on the platform of Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) in the 2011 presidential election. #SOTNB21.
"After initial hesitation, my eventual acceptance was upon the assurance that, amongst other deliverables, our administration would commit to re-engineering Nigeria’s governmental structure with a view to guaranteeing the security & prosperity of our nation & her people. #SOTNB21After a vigorous campaign, GMB gave a deeply emotional public statement at a press conference on April 13, 2011 - “I am in this solely for the love of my country and concern for its destiny and the fate of its people.” #SOTNB21.
"At some point while delivering his speech, GMB broke down in tears as he wept for our nation. Deeply moved, several of us who were with him in the hall also wept. GMB then made a solemn statement: “I will not present myself again for election into the office of the president.” After the controversial and divisive 2011 elections, as Nigeria drifted along sectional undercurrents and the nation sought a unifying force, some of us prevailed on General Muhammadu Buhari not to quit the stage…#SOTNB21.
"But to take back his words and form a coalition of the best of the North and the best of the South to salvage our nation. I must admit that I played a critical role in that mission. God had shown me in a vision that GMB still had a role to play in stabilising Nigeria. #SOTNB21.
"I, therefore, facilitated a meeting in the United Kingdom between him and some of our CPC leaders with a view to forming a coalition between CPC and Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) that could save Nigeria from impending disaster. #SOTNB21Subsequently, it was my privilege to move the historic motion at Eagle Square, Abuja on February 6, 2013 for the merger of CPC, ACN and ANPP. That step, together with the efforts of other progressive Nigerians, led to the eventual formation of the All Progressives Congress (APC).However, in 2015, as our nation prepared for general elections, the interplay of social, economic, political and military headwinds came crashing on our national foundations and exposed the fault lines in our nationhood…#SOTNB21…As the two major political parties, APC and PDP, and their candidates locked horns, our nation was deeply divided along ethnic, partisan, religious and sociocultural lines. #SOTNB21.
"Furthermore, oil prices plummeted across the globe, an economic recession loomed, and severe hardships lay in wait for the Nigerian people. #SOTNB21. As drum beats of war reverberated across the landscape with threats to national stability coming from various political interest groups, BH terrorists held sway over vast swathes of territory, and 276 girls were abducted and held in captivity. #SOTNB21.
"In the midst of that chaotic climate, the 2015 general election was the preoccupation of the political class. Many stakeholders were convinced that a change of government was what Nigeria needed at that time and the “Change” mantra was chanted across the nation #SOTNB21.
However, I warned that our myriad challenges, including violent sectional agitations, terrorism, socio-economic deprivation, and political violence were merely symptoms of more fundamental problems. #SOTNB21.
I identified some of these foundational problems to include our faulty and lopsided governmental structure, unresolved historical grievances, unreconciled historical differences…#SOTNB21…fierce disagreements around identity and population dynamics with a census in view, gaps in the structure of our economy, and the many aberrations in our constitution. #SOTNB21.
I warned that a mere change of government without the definite resolution of these foundational questions of nationhood would amount to putting the cart before the horse and could lead the nation to a catastrophe. #SOTNB21. I then advocated pausing the elections within the confines of the Constitution so as to resolve these issues and stabilise our nation before proceeding to the polls. #SOTNB21.
However, when the nation disregarded wise counsel & insisted on building on faulty foundations, I stepped into the terrain as a nation builder. I worked behind the scenes with the two leading candidates to ensure that our nation was not swept away by the floods of disintegration. Upon the commencement of the administration of PMB, on various platforms, from the pulpit to the podium, from State of the Nation addresses such as this, to lectures at various fora, I pointed out to Nigeria the way out of the dire situation we are in as a nation. #SOTNB21.
"Furthermore, I engaged the government on several occasions, including direct engagements with the president, because of my desire to see PMB actualise the dreams of a great Nigeria we had committed to. #SOTNB21. As I told the president in some of those engagements, his success is my success, and his failure is my failure. It is why I remain committed to seeing him succeed. #SOTNB21.
"I have laid a historical background as an introduction to this address because it is time to speak out. I am compelled to speak out because this is not the Nigeria General Muhammadu Buhari and I had dreams to create when he invited me to be his running mate in 2011. #SOTNB21. I am compelled to speak out because the state of the nation does not represent the Buhari I knew when we took that solemn journey towards rebuilding Nigeria. #SOTNB21.
"I am compelled to cry out because of the intent of the president as contained in his tribute dated October 14, 2019 in honour of my 65th birthday…#SOTNB21…PMB wrote to me: “We have shared ideas on how to engender a better country and formed a tag team for political power. May the ideas germinate fully, proliferate and give us the country of our dreams.” #SOTNB21.
"I am compelled to speak out at this point because, given the state of the nation, the legacy of President Muhammadu Buhari is in grave danger of being confined to an unsavoury side of history. I am indeed compelled to speak out because Nigeria is in a state of emergency. #SOTNB21.
"For many years, Nigeria was in the intensive care unit of the universe. However, six years ago, against timely warnings not to overlook fundamental and underlying conditions as the country prepared for the 2015 elections, her “caregivers” certified her fit and discharged her. Underlying conditions have resurfaced and our nation is now in a critical state. Her survival is hanging in the balance and she has been rushed to the emergency room. The diagnosis indicates that a surgical procedure is unavoidable. #SOTNB21.
"The purpose of this address is to present the facts of this diagnosis and point a way out of our current crisis even as we approach a critical juncture in the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari. #SOTNB21. Fellow Nigerians, before I present this diagnosis, I would like to state that this evaluation has become all the more necessary as the year 2021 ushers in the second half of the second term of the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari. #SOTNB21.
I am reminded of the prayer of Moses when he saw the calamities that befell his people as he led them through the wilderness towards the Promised Land. he prayed: “So teach us to number our days, that we may apply our hearts unto wisdom.” #SOTNB21.
This assessment is, therefore, imperative because it aims to bring to the consciousness of the present occupants of the seat of power the transient nature of political power, so that they may become circumspect and commit to redeeming the time they have left in office. #SOTNB21.
"My aim in highlighting these issues is to ensure that the government of President Muhammadu Buhari does not fall victim to what is historically described, especially in American politics, as the “Second-Term Curse.” #SOTNB21. Political analysts describe the second-term curse as “the perceived tendency of second terms of U.S. presidents to be less successful than their first terms.” #SOTNB21.
"Although some analysts question the notion of a second-term curse, the historical facts speak for themselves. History suggests that the so-called curse is due to overconfidence and loss of focus by leaders during their second terms in office. #SOTNB21. Per The Wall Street Journal: "The re-elected president overestimates his mandate. He ignores opposition & pursues goals that prove to be beyond reach. Freed of the need to seek re-election, isolated by the perquisites of office, he plunges ahead — only to fall off a cliff.
"In support of this position, The New York Times argues that: Overwhelming victory can often lead to second-term hubris, persuading a president that the country thinks he can do no wrong. #SOTNB21. It may interest you to know that the second-term curse phenomenon has proved historically relevant in the Nigerian context. #SOTNB21. The 1st Republic was toppled during what was more or less Balewa's 2nd term, following allegations of corruption, patronage politics, overbearing reach of the centre, draconian incursion by the central govt into regional governance, & the resulting political instability. #SOTNB21.
In like manner, the Second Republic ended abruptly during the second term of President Shehu Shagari. #SOTNB21.
Addressing the nation as the Shagari administration was overthrown, his successor, the then General Muhammadu Buhari, made the following statement as military head of state…#SOTNB21“...It is true that there is a worldwide economic recession. However, in the case of Nigeria, its impact was aggravated by mismanagement. We believe the appropriate government agencies have good advice but the leadership disregarded their advice.” #SOTNB21." We have come to depend largely on internal and external borrowing to execute government projects with attendant domestic pressure and soaring external debts, thus aggravating the propensity of the outgoing civilian administration to mismanage our financial resources.” These excerpts of the December 31, 1983 speech by the then General Muhammadu Buhari told the unfortunate story of how the administration of President Shehu Shagari had succumbed to the so-called second-term curse. #SOTNB21. Some would even argue that, in an ironic turn of events, the reflections of General Muhammadu Buhari on the Shagari administration succinctly describe Nigeria’s current realities under the civilian administration of President Muhammadu Buhari. #SOTNB21.
"No admin in Nigeria’s recent history has fallen victim to the jinx of the 2nd term as that of President Olusegun Obasanjo. Re-elected in 2003, he began his second term as civilian president on a high note by appointing some of Nigeria's most competent technocrats into his cabinet.
Bolstered by high oil prices and an unprecedented growth rate, the economic team of President Obj developed & drove one of the most promising reform experiences in Nig’s governance history under the umbrella of the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS).
"The efforts of the Obj admin led to a historic debt relief package for Nigeria as well as the institutionalisation of budgetary due process. #SOTNB21.
"The Obasanjo administration also midwifed the growth of the liberalised teleco sector, the devt of a framework for power sector reforms, the launch of a set of education reform policies, the institution of EFCC, etc. #SOTNB21As these reforms began to energise the polity and Nigerians began to talk of the emergence of a “modern Nigeria,” the second-term curse reared its ugly head in the form of a Third-Term Agenda which would mar President Obasanjo’s legacy. #SOTNB21.
"Jinxed by this phenomenon, President Obasanjo then bequeathed to the nation a shaky succession through an election process even the winner, President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, admitted was flawed. #SOTNB21As a result, not only did the former president deny Nigeria the opportunity of stable and guaranteed reforms, he also denied himself the benefit of a well-deserved and uninterrupted retirement after decades of commendable service to the nation. #SOTNB21.
This might explain why the former president has become, according to some, “The Letter-Writer-General of the Federation,” constantly interrupting his retirement to write thought-provoking open letters to successive presidents. #SOTNB21.
Going by the weighty and wisdom-laden contents of these letters, it is as though the former president, observing affairs with hindsight, is compelled to redeem his legacy and to right the wrongs he ostensibly created by his actions and inactions during his second term in office. It was British statesman, Winston Churchill, who once said, “Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it.” The purpose of this address is to ensure that the administration of PMB finishes strong and breaks the jinx of the second-term curse. #SOTNB21.
Fellow Nigerians, you may recall that as PMB took the oath of office during his first term in office, he summed up his election campaign promises in 3 pivotal agendas, namely: Security, Anti-Corruption & Eco Diversification with a focus on job creation. #SOTNB21. I applauded this three-point agenda because the focal areas should have provided an opportunity for the president to address Nigeria’s fundamental issues given that they point to the foundational deficits in our polity, namely: #SOTNB21.
The deficit of a government structure that can guarantee the security of lives/property; the deficit of a moral compass & national value system that can eliminate corruption from our national psyche,... #SOTNB21...and the deficit of an economic structure that can unleash the potential of Nigeria’s diverse zones. #SOTNB21. However, the 1st term saw the Buhari admin grapple with the collapse in oil prices and Nigeria’s 1st recession in about 25 yrs. Despite the false starts, the admin succeeded in bringing Nigeria out of recession and made some gains in security, job creation and anti-corruption. On security, the administration of President Buhari continued the military assault on Boko Haram that had commenced at the end of the term of his predecessor. #SOTNB21.
We recall the PMB's 1st bold move when he ordered the relocation of the Command Control Centre from Abuja to Borno. By December 2015, the government declared Boko Haram “technically defeated” and unable to mount conventional attacks against hard or soft targets. #SOTNB21.
We recall the PMB's 1st bold move when he ordered the relocation of the Command Control Centre from Abuja to Borno. By December 2015, the government declared Boko Haram “technically defeated” and unable to mount conventional attacks against hard or soft targets. #SOTNB21.
On anti-corruption: PMB took commendable steps in the fight against corruption at the beginning of his admin, including the attempt to plug the loopholes in the system through the Treasury Single Account (TSA) intervention. #SOTNB21In 2016, Nigeria received its highest scorecard so far in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index. #SOTNB21."
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